El Nino

According to a multi-agency study published this week in Nature Geoscience the predicted increase of severe El Nino and La Nina events will bring increased storm events with extreme coastal flooding and erosion across the Pacific.

Patrick Barnard from the US Geological Survey says other studies have analysed coastal impacts at local and regional levels but this is the first to look at patterns for the whole of the Pacific.

According to a multi-agency study published today in Nature Geoscience: "This study significantly advances the scientific knowledge of the impacts of El Niño and La Niña," said Patrick Barnard, USGS coastal geologist and the lead author of the study. "Understanding the effects of severe storms fueled by El Niño or La Niña helps coastal managers prepare communities for the expected erosion and flooding associated with this climate cycle."

The category five system tore through the states of Yap and Chuuk in March, killing five people, contaminating water supplies and wiping out crops.

Stuart Simpson says the IOM and the government has spent the past six months trying to restore crops on islands that bore a direct hit from Maysak, and these are only starting to produce food.

However, he says an El Niño that is predicted to be one of the worst in decades could bring a drought that will bring them back to step one, and they need to be prepared.

The UN resident coordinator in Fiji, Osnat Lubrani, says it is expected to rival the 1997 El Nino which is the most severe on record.

Ms Lubrani says drought problems currently being experienced around parts of the region are just the beginning.

She says governments need to start raising awareness in communities and preparing national emergency plans.

The UN's Resident Coordinator, Osnat Lubrani, says communities and governments need to prepare now for the extreme weather changes El Niño usually triggers.

He says some countries are already implementing or drafting drought plans and the UN is ready to help co-ordinate this and to provide technical advice.

Over the coming months, countries on the equator can expect more rain, flooding and higher sea levels, presenting challenges for low-lying atolls already feeling the impacts of climate change.

“Climatologists are now unanimous in predicting that we are heading for a strong to severe El Niño event in the coming months. Some modelling is now suggesting this El Niño could be as severe as the event in 1997/98 which is the worst on record and brought severe drought to PNG and Fiji,” United Nations Resident Coordinator, Osnat Lubrani said.

The developing El Nino is stronger than the last major event of its type in 1997.

According to the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the UK Met Office, this El Nino is shaping up to be the strongest since records began in 1950.

El Nino is a natural phenomenon which occurs every two to seven years and lasts between six and 18 months.

Almost the entire Pacific region is preparing for the onset of what climate forecasters predict could be one of the worst El Niño events since the late 1990s.

Our correspondent in the Marshall Islands, Giff Johnson, says the system has been building all year, with meteorologists there predicting a drought that could last for six to nine months.

He says the last El Niño-related drought in 1997 was devastating.

Noah Kool says 300,000 people in the province have been affected by frosts and drought, which has caused water supplies to dry up and food gardens to be destroyed.

He says the lack of water has meant schools are closing, public servants are not working and the hospital is shutting its doors.

Mr Kool says the national government needs to do a thorough assessment of what aid is needed.

Forecasters from the UN's World Meteorological Organisation are also warning the weather phenomenon may gather strength and reach its peak between October and January – with its effects felt for many weeks afterwards.

El Niño events happen every few years when the wind shifts in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

It can have devastating consequences for agriculture and disease and influences heavy rain in North and South America and higher temperatures in Asia and Africa.