The tropical cyclone (TC) activity expected in the 2019/20 Tropical Cyclone Season to affect Tonga is likely to be around average (1 to 2 cyclones on average).
According to the Meteorology Department, historical records indicate that Tonga could expect at least 1 cyclone and at most 4 cyclones to occur with a high chance (85%) of at least 1 severe tropical cyclone occurring.
Any tropical cyclones passing close to the country, associated active cloud and rain bands may occasionally affect Tonga with marked rainfall and possible flooding, including sea flooding of low‐lying coastal areas.
Tropical cyclones affecting Tonga in the 2019/2020 season should expect to be mostly coming from the NW (Fiji Area – 42%), West (29%), NE (Samoa Area – 16%), North (Wallis/Futuna – 13%).
About 5 to 8 named Tropical Cyclones are expected for the South West Pacific (Fiji Area of Responsibility) in 2019/2020 season with 2 to 4 reaching severe intensity (Category 3 to 5).
Current dynamics indicate the first tropical cyclone activity for the season in the South West Pacific could be around the beginning to mid-December 2019.
The official 2019/20 TC Season will begin on 01 November 2019, and will end on 30 April, 2020.
The peak time for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in Tonga is from January to March with most events occurring in February.